“The future millionaires of Africa will not come from the oil and gas sector, but from agriculture,” said Mr Similo Nkala at the National Agriculture Conference and Expo held on 24-25 September.
Agriculture employs an estimated 54% to 70% of our population, contributes around 16% directly to GDP, and accounts for 53% of export earnings. Minister of Agriculture Mr Anxious Masuka stressed the need to invest in rural communities and harness their population, because those communities must also contribute to, and benefit from, agricultural development.
“Move up the value chain”
Turning agricultural potential into an export machine requires a shift from raw commodity sales to high-value agro-processing, structured market linkages and strategic investment. Zimbabwe should focus on transforming raw crops such as maize, soybeans, fruits and tobacco into higher-value foods, beverages and oils, rather than exporting them unprocessed only to buy them back at a higher price.
Value chain investment should also target high-impact sectors such as blueberries, dairy, beef and horticulture, which command premium global prices. Partnering major export enterprises with local growers, by supplying certified seed, fertiliser and technical guidance, would guarantee a consistent, high-grade harvest and could raise agriculture’s contribution to GDP.
“Make rural producers part of the export strategy”
Another issue is aggregation. Many rural communities do not produce enough volume to meet export demand, and exports are a game of numbers. More than 80% of our fruit and vegetable exports go to Europe, mostly to the Netherlands. Other destinations include Germany, China, Hong Kong and France. This is the profile of our horticultural export markets.
Blueberry production has been performing and expanding well. However, according to figures confirmed by the Horticultural Development Council, we have only about 850 hectares under blueberries. The crop is in high demand and offers considerable potential to boost our exports. There is ample room to expand production of selected crops and become a leading exporter of horticultural produce.
Demand for avocados has also been substantial. Most were previously destined for Europe, but a recently signed protocol with China now opens the Chinese market. Citrus presents another significant opportunity. More than 60% of enquiries are for oranges, and farmers in Beitbridge report that their entire production is already committed for the next three years. This shows the opportunity to invest in and expand citrus production and exports.
Beyond crops, there is considerable potential to export meat products, including beef and pork. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) market is estimated at around US$2.1 billion, with the UAE importing approximately US$479 million and Saudi Arabia around US$1.4 billion. This is a substantial market, but compliance is critical: the requirements of these markets must be met to export successfully.
“Meeting demand, building supply and unlocking export competitiveness”
Accelerating the agricultural sector requires us first to meet demand and then to build supply. The market is there. Peas, one of our leading export crops, are shipped to Europe between April and August or September. During certain months of that window, as the Horticultural Development Council can confirm, Zimbabwe is among the few suppliers to that market.
Demand is so strong that farmers need not hide their crops from their neighbours. The market is large enough to absorb increased supply, so we must meet demand, build supply and address logistical constraints, including road access and cold-chain management. We must also move up the value chain by investing in processing, branding, intellectual property and the development of premium export products.
Sugar, as a processed product, has led our exports for some time. Structurally, however, it was exported mainly to Europe and the Far East, and Zimbabwe’s participation in regional markets was not particularly strong. We were also exporting mainly raw material, which was then processed further in destination countries to their own specifications.
What, then, do we need to do to export into the region, compete effectively and displace existing sugar suppliers? The first step is to move away from supplying a vulnerable primary commodity and add value. This is partly what we are doing through processing.
Zimbabwe was historically a breadbasket, with the competence and experience to perform. At one stage, we had the largest sugar-processing mill in Africa. We therefore have a history of leadership, competitiveness and reliable supply, and we need to reclaim that status.
Export barriers often arise from policies and regulations. With free trade and regional trading blocs such as SADC and COMESA, we have access to markets in those countries. To enter them, we must make use of our natural advantages.
“Where will the surplus sugar be sold?”
As noted earlier, Zimbabwe has water resources that can sustain production for years, even during drought. Some countries in the region rely on rain-fed sugarcane and experience fluctuations in supply when rainfall is poor. Zimbabwe’s irrigation capacity can therefore help it become a reliable regional supplier.
The sugar industry recently developed a 10-year strategy that aims to double sugar output over that period. Since current production is broadly sufficient for domestic consumption, the key question is where the additional sugar will be sold. The regional market is a potential destination.
Several countries in the region do not produce sugar, including Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho and Comoros. Others have production deficits: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola, Tanzania and Madagascar, while Malawi has also recorded deficits in previous years. Taken together, the region has an estimated sugar deficit of 1.1 million tonnes.
At the same time, some countries produce a surplus. Zimbabwe produces approximately 100,000 tonnes more than it requires, and Eswatini, Zambia and South Africa are also surplus producers. The question, therefore, is how Zimbabwe can compete with these suppliers and improve its performance in regional markets.
